Are the Models Reliable?

Present forecasting methods “oversimplify poorly understood climate processes” and “simply ignore others,” say critics. They also point to the inconsistencies in computed projections. One scientist who participated in the IPCC discussions said: “There are some of us who remain so humbled by the task of measuring and understanding the extraordinarily complex climate system that we are skeptical of our ability to know what it is doing and why.”*

Some would argue, of course, that using an element of doubt as justification for doing nothing is gambling with the future. “How would we explain this to our children?” they say. Whether the climate models are accurate or not, we can be certain that the earth is in serious trouble. Its life-sustaining environment is being assaulted by pollution, deforestation, urbanization, and the extinction of species, to name just a few factors that no one can successfully dispute.

WEATHER-RELATED DISASTERS IN 2007

The year 2007 saw a record number of weather-related disasters for which the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs issued 14 emergency appeals—4 more than the previous record, set in 2005. Listed here are just some of the disasters that occurred in 2007. Keep in mind, of course, that individual events do not necessarily indicate a long-term trend.

Britain: More than 350,000 people were affected by the worst flooding in over 60 years. England and Wales saw the wettest May to July since record-keeping began in 1766.

West Africa: Floods affected 800,000 people in 14 countries.

Lesotho: High temperatures and drought destroyed crops. Some 553,000 people may require food aid.

Sudan: Torrential rains left 150,000 people without shelter. At least 500,000 received aid.

Madagascar: Cyclones and heavy rains lashed the island, displacing 33,000 people and destroying the crops of 260,000.

North Korea: An estimated 960,000 were severely hit by widespread flooding, landslides, and mud slides.

Bangladesh: Flooding affected 8.5 million people and killed over 3,000, as well as 1.25 million farm animals. Nearly 1.5 million homes were either damaged or destroyed.

India: Floods affected 30 million people.

Pakistan: Cyclonic rains left 377,000 people displaced and hundreds dead.

Bolivia: More than 350,000 were affected by flooding, and 25,000 were displaced.

Mexico: Regional flooding left at least 500,000 homeless and affected more than a million.

Dominican Republic: Prolonged heavy rainfall caused floods and landslides, displacing 65,000.

United States: Fires across tinder-dry southern California forced 500,000 residents to flee their homes.

In view of what we know, can we expect mankind as a whole to make an about-face so as to spare our beautiful home—and us too? What is more, if human activity is causing global warming, we may have only years, not centuries, to make the needed changes. At the very least, making such changes would mean promptly addressing the root causes of earth’s problems—human greed, self-interest, ignorance, inept government, and apathy. Is such a prospect probable or just wishful thinking? If the latter, are we without hope?

* John R. Christy, director of the Earth System Science Center at the University of Alabama, Huntsville, U.S.A., as reported in The Wall Street Journal, November 1, 2007.